#note
[https://vimeo.com/79128724](https://vimeo.com/79128724)
## Want to Control
- Cost
- Schedule
- Time
## Estimates
- 見積もりは意思決定をするために利用している
- > The only sure thing about forecast is that they are wrong
- > They are often based on guesses about time needed to do work we don't yet understand.
## Planning
- コストや人数や期間を計画すること
- > Writing a plan makes you feel in control of things you can't actually controll
- > Rework - J. Fried & D.H Hansson
- In Agile -> Discovery and Steering
- 発見やCreativeをPlanする
- リアルタイムにすべきことに柔軟に対応できるように計画する
- Q Excuse : My Customer demands estimates - I have to do them
- > 1. Get good at legally putting the blame on the customer when things go bad.
- > 2. Find better customers who really want to get a lot of the right software written for as little money as possible
[The NoEstimates Movement by Ron Jeffries](https://ronjeffries.com/xprog/articles/the-noestimates-movement/)
- Woody Zuill and Neil Killick are the major speaker for this topic
- > we only know how much software development costs after the fact.
- > This approach allows us to manage risk and measure progress toward project completion (meeting of stakeholder goals within a given budget) from the get-go.
[Delivering Value on Time by Using #NoEstimates by InfoQ](https://www.infoq.com/news/2015/05/value-time-noestimates/?itm_source=presentations_about_NoEstimates&itm_medium=link&itm_campaign=NoEstimates)
- デッドラインが決まってるプロジェクトでデッドラインを守れずに炎上する率が高かった
- 以下のような変遷を経て改善していった
1. 最初は詳細見積もりをしていた
- 期限に間に合わず大炎上
2. ユースケースに分解してユースケースごとに見積もっていた
- 幾らかの改善はしたけど、間に合うようにはあまりならなかった
3. ユースケースに分解して期限がくるまで定期的にスコープコントロールやユースケースを並び替えを行う
- 期日は固定で、投資が続く限り期待する価値を作る
- リリースしないにしても、内部向けにはリリースできる状態を作ってイテレーティブに進める必要がある
[NoEstimates](https://oikosofyseries.com/no-estimates-book-order) がリソースとしてはおすすめ (このインタビュイーが書いた本)
[#NoEstimates - An Alternative Means Of Risk Management](https://www.neilkillick.com/blog/noestimates-an-alternative-means-of-risk-management)
- > Most "Agile" projects are not managing risk
- > If we decide up front in a project inception on the requirements (product backlog) and solution we will be sticking to, and estimate it will take, say, 9 months, all we will do is incrementally build the solution, usually in horizontal slices, components or modules.
- >
- > After each "iteration" we will not have a holistic view of what we're building.
- >
- > This is a very common approach by "Agile" teams. In this situation we are deferring the management of risk until we actually have a system that can meet (some of) the needs of the project stakeholders, usually late in the game when the deadline is getting close.
- >
- > This is not risk management. If we work in this way we cannot work with NoEstimates.
> The irony of this argument is that when the big number guys come out swinging with their big numbers, these numbers are estimates! When we call a project that we haven't yet completed, or even started, a "$200m project", what we are actually saying is "our customer has a $200m budget and we have to deliver what they want for their money". In other words, the decision has been made to go ahead, and the budget is $200m. There is no go/no-go decision to be made — it's already been decided that the project is going ahead, and they want a result for $200m.
$200m projectとしてprojectが走り出すのであれば、すでに意思決定はされていてあとはこれに見合う価値を届けるだけである
> But I maintain that the Agile way, where we start from a budget or fixed deadline and then actively build and manage scope along the way, is preferable because it harnesses the creativity of designing and building great software and allows us to welcome and embrace change every step of the way.
締め切りと予算が固定されてる状況からスコープコントロールを通して価値のあるものを作る方針の方が筆者は好んでいる。
しかしそのためには、インクリメンタルではなくイテレーティブにモノを作ってはちょっとずつ価値を検証していく必要がある

[#NoEstimates Part 1 — Doing Scrum Without Estimates](https://www.neilkillick.com/blog/noestimates-part-1-doing-scrum-without-estimates)
> ITERATE, DON'T ESTIMATE
[#NoEstimates Part 2 - Contract Negotiation and the Old Banger](https://www.neilkillick.com/blog/noestimates-part-2-contract-negotiation-and-the-old-banger)
[#NoEstimates Part 3 - The Palm Off](https://www.neilkillick.com/blog/noestimates-part-3-the-palm-off)